Nigerian presidential election in 2019: prediction of results
The significance of the election is to select the majority of voters who think they have the ability to help them achieve their ideal country. The quadrennial elections in Nigeria is about to begin, the political parties are actively campaigning, the candidates were hopeful, social and cultural groups also continue to support their own candidates, observers are coming, as Nigerians are 2 Yue 16 The election of the day was actively prepared by the election of the president and legislators who belonged to them. The article evaluates the determinants of the election win and forecasts the election results.
First, a brief introduction and explanation should be made: The author (Omoshola Deji) is an expert and a predictor of the results of the Nigerian election. Predicting the election results reflects his political analysis skills, but does not represent his support for any political party or candidate. Due to the accuracy of the author’s previous predictions, it attracted the media and many domestic and foreign Nigerians would pay attention to his predictions during the election period. Forecasting the outcome of an election does not mean that the expert has access to certain sacred information or strategies developed by any candidate to win the election. In developed countries, it is a common practice to predict winners by assessing the strengths and weaknesses of candidates. This does not mean that experts are demeaning the election process or affect the election results. The Nigerians have decided who they will vote for, so there is nothing to change their minds, and this prediction will not easily change their minds.
The 2019 presidential election will be the most competitive in Nigeria’s history, not because of too many competitors, but because of the rise in power struggles and the different personalities of these top candidates. A total of 73 candidates participated in the general election, but the main competition occurred between the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari and the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the All Progress Congress Party (APC). Other major competitors include AAC’s Omoyele Sowore, ANN’s Fela Durotoye and YPP’s Kinsley Moghalu.
Sowore, Durotoye and Moghalu are “young” energetic latecomers, but their political structure is too weak to win presidential elections in a diverse country like Nigeria. The greed of power has failed the efforts of the Alliance, and these efforts could have made them a powerful third force. If their main wish is to save Nigeria from the old order, then there should be no problem in uniting to support a fellow candidate.
The two main candidates, Atiku and Buhari, have similar backgrounds, which makes predictions based on ethnic religions ineffective. Unlike the competition between Southern Christians and Northern Muslims in 2015, the two main presidential candidates in 2019 were Northern Fulani, and they were also Muslims and were over the ages. Both candidates are experienced candidates and their parties are intertwined. This election is Atiku’s fourth attempt, and Buhari won the fourth race in 2015 and hopes to be re-elected.
Buhari’s performance and obstacles
Like everyone else, Buhari is fighting two things: his performance and his opponent. His main rival, Atiku, has an extensive campaign network and has been actively campaigning. Unlike the candidates who participated in the election for the sake of fame, Atiku’s rigorous campaign proved that his campaign was to win. He spares no effort because he knows that such an opportunity may not appear again. He is aging, and if Buhari wins, power is expected to return to the South. Atiku has always been committed to working on the psychological conditions of voters, reconciling with the enemy, gaining support and turning their main liabilities into assets. His recent visit to the United States was also an ingenious political move that restored his gradual decline in campaign value due to corruption.
Nigerians have very different opinions about Buhari. Frankly speaking, praise and condemnation are all right. The praising side scored by comparing the achievements of Buhari with previous presidents, many of whom scored low on providing basic facilities, security and socio-economic development. Compared with his predecessors, Buhari’s performance is satisfactory. He is rehabilitating the railway, building the second bridge in Niger, building roads, and fighting Boko Haram. Buhari also paid for Nigerian airline retirees and introduced social incentives such as school feeding, N-power and Trader Moni – and the opposition criticized the measures as a temptation to voters. The presidential election is, to a certain extent, a referendum on the performance of Buhari. He will win the support of voters who think he is doing well, and those who hold different views and realize that the second government is often no better than the first government will vote for other candidates.
The condemned party’s evaluation of him was based on his failure to honor the promises of the 2015 election campaign. They accused him of bringing hope to the Nigerians, but the performance was lower than expected. Buhari had promised to reorganize, but later reneged. His appointment was tilted to the north, and the bandits, insurgents and herders were arbitrarily genocidal and bloody, and the general public lacked security. The anti-corruption struggle is incredibly selective, making Nigeria the 144th in the integrity ranking of 175 countries in the world of Transparency International. (The opponents believe that Buhari repeatedly scorned court orders, persecuted activists and journalists, and repeatedly tolerated the slaughter of unarmed IPOB organizations and Shiite members. He disturbed the legislature and the judiciary and ruled by dictatorship. Hunting for critics. Basic living facilities are either lacking in function or not available at all, the exchange rate is high, consumer goods are expensive, and the unemployment rate is staggering. His performance is unsatisfactory if he evaluates his performance based on Buhari’s overly sweet promises made in 2015. His tyranny and incompetence are winning the hearts of Atiku.
Buhari reaffirmed his determination to further address corruption, danger and economic recovery, while Atiku boasted of his ability to provide jobs, eradicate poverty and recover the economy. One of Atiku’s main disadvantages is his former boss and former President Olusegon Obabsanjo’s comments during their unfriendly period. Obabsanjo said in his book My Watch: “I know very little about the background of his parents. Their background is somewhat blurred. This is also evident later. He has a tendency to corrupt. He There is a tendency to be unfaithful. He cannot speak and always uphold the truth. He has a tendency to have poor judgment, his beliefs and his dependence on Islam. He lacks transparency. He believes that money can buy his way out on all issues. He is willing to sacrifice morality, integrity, courtesy and national interest for his own and selfish interests.” Although Obabsanjo has reconciled with Atiku and expressed support for him, many Nigerians still use the statement in My Watch to smash Atiku.
Although political parties will be devalued when they are unable to obtain the support of some people, in fact, the support of various groups still has an impact on voters. People who live in rural areas and traditional communities, their votes are largely based on these support. In these areas, leaders’ recommendations are highly respected. Candidates also use support to convince people with different opinions and voters who have not yet made a decision. Atiku gained more influential support than Buhari. Atiku is supported by leaders and elders of well-known regional sociocultural groups, including the Central Forum (North Central), Ohanaeze Ndigbo (Southeast), the Pan-Niger Delta Forum (South-South), and Afenifere (Southwest). The most shocking support Atiku received was from the Northern Elders Forum, which had a major impact on conservative northern Muslims, most of whom were supporters of Buhari. However, Arewa’s negotiating political circles gave Buhari a negative support.
The ruling party is always the most popular with supporters. The massive support of the opposition PDP indicates that regional leaders do not trust APC, or that the party simply chooses to connect directly with the people by distributing commercial aid (such as Trader Moni). The latter may not win Buhari’s votes. The beneficiaries of Trader Moni are mainly sympathizers of their various social and cultural groups, which support Atiku. If an Igbo businessman knows that Ohaneze Ndigbo will end the ethnic marginalization under Buahri by supporting Atiku, he is likely to vote for Atiku, whether or not he has benefited from Trader Moni. Social and cultural groups have a way to awaken racial emotions, which allows people to vote for the candidates they support. But as people increasingly vote based on personal beliefs, this culture is gradually changing.
The influence of the generals
When the supporters are reduced, APC will doubt its dominance; when more individuals or groups support Buhari , APC will also multiply confidence. The 71 retired generals supported Buhari’s re-election, which is also a favorable counterattack against some famous generals and former heads of state who opposed Buhari’s re-election. Olusegun Obasanjo , General, Ibrahim Babangida and General Theophilus Danjuma general opposition Boukhari , Yakubu Gowon , General apolitical, Abdulsalami Abubakar , General Chairman of the National Peace Council. The rejection of Buhari by his powerful and influential contemporaries may hinder his victory, because the generals, especially Obasanjo, always decide who will become president.
The generals have a huge political impact, because they are almost all the major political players in Nigeria and sculpture. Obasanjo is one of the main enemies of the APC ruling party , because he is determined to end Buhari ‘s rule, replaced by the People’s Democratic Party’s Atiku . He supported the presidential candidate ultimately always elected, including the 2015 year Boukhari . Therefore, Obasanjo is deeply respected by the international community. If Buhari is declared a winner due to election fraud and post-election clashes, his global influence and connections may ruin him. Obasanjo is doing everything in his power to ensure that Buhari will not win, weaken his influence and make him withdraw from politics as soon as possible.
Aso Rock’s plot
Bukhari Aisha ( Aisha Buhari ) claimed that her husband Buhari government was hijacked cabal, and he lost a lot of votes. Aisha revealed at the National Women’s Leadership Summit that two powerful people have been threatening her husband and trying to stop his rally speech. Buhari denied the allegation, but many Nigerians believe that his wife’s statement is an accusation against Aso Rock . The president failed to regain public trust by reorganizing the cabinet, which would cause many to vote against his end to conspiracy.
Buhari ‘s deteriorating health and memory of a declining state will also weaken his support. Many Nigerians believe that if Buhari wins, he will be treated abroad for most of his term. He can’t remember the basics and gradually loses his ability to take care of himself. After a series of mistakes, even in the speech of the APC Delta governor candidate and the presidential candidate, they forgot their own declaration oath, which made many Nigerians worried that he was not suitable for continuing to govern because of his poor mentality. On the contrary, Atiku showed more calmness and wisdom, but his commitment to let his friends use power for personal gain made him lose the trust of the public. Nigerians may decide to let the morbid, dictatorial, and incompetent Buhari regain power, because Atiku has a tendency to be corrupt and accepts crony capitalism — making friends rich through privatization.
The APC cross-state crisis within the party and the influential people withdrawing from the party may make Buhari unable to re- elect . APC was stronger than it is in 2015 . The party benefited greatly from the withdrawal of a large number of political dignitaries from the then ruling People’s Democratic Party, which largely helped President Buhari defeat President Jonathan at the time. Most of the heavyweights have returned to the People’s Democratic Party and are determined to oust Buhari . These include the People’s Democratic Party presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar ; Senate President Bukola Saraki ; Benue State Governor Samuel Ortom and Sokoto Governor Aminu Tambuwal ; House Representative Spokesperson Yakubu Dogara ; and Kano State’s former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso . These big men leaving APC will certainly not make Buhari easy to win. The ruling APC tried to win the former governors of the Akwa-Ibom and Delta states, Godswill Akpabio and Emmanuel UduaghanSupport to make up for this shortcoming. But unfortunately, these former governors were unable to win many votes for Buhari , and their influence was limited to their state. The rest of the states are strongholds for the PDP . For example, most people in the Delta region of Nigeria are anti- Buhari .
Buhari has been a group of elite political persecution and prosecution will use the power of their arms to ensure that Buhari government never far not re-elected. Those who are affected by Buhari’s unfavourable economic policies, as well as others who have not benefited from the Buhari government, will do everything possible to defeat him.
The entry of Atiku into the United States and the condemnation of Buhari’s anti-democratic actions by foreign governments are all key reasons why the international community wants Atiku to serve as president. The Buhari government did not receive strong support from the international community, not because of his poor performance, but because he refused to rely on and implement neocolonialism, thus preventing them from exploiting the country. Western countries are only friends of governments that allow them to do whatever they want, and they are known for their efforts to remove uncontrolled leaders. Kwame Nkrumah ( Kwame Nkruma ), Patrice Lumumba ( Patrice Lumumba ) and Julius Nyerere ( Julius Nyerere ) is a model worthy of trust. The shortcomings of Buhari are also opening up a path for the West through Atiku . When the PDP launched the campaign “Let Nigeria get back to work”, most people complained that nothing actually worked.
INEC and security work
Security agencies and the National Independent Electoral Commission ( INEC ) should not be expected to have excellent professional conduct. According to reports, a midnight secret meeting held by the leaders of the Independent Electoral Commission and followers of Buhari may lead to deliberate misconduct by the election judges. Security officials will try to remain neutral, but if the election were force potential enemy, Boukhari need some misconduct to pave the way for re-election, their partisanship will appear. However, in fact, the heads of security agencies, especially the police chiefs of many states, are likely to turn a blind eye to helping Buhari win.
Nigeria has 84 , 004 and 084 registered voters. By population, the number of registered voters in the six geopolitical regions and the number of permanent voter cards are as follows :
Northwest: 20,158,100 registered voters, 18,882,854 permanent selection certificates have been collected.
Southwest: 16292212 registered voters, 12444594 permanent selection certificates have been collected.
North Central: 13,366,070 registered voters, 11,849,027 permanent selection certificates have been collected.
Zhengnan area: 12,841,279 registered voters, 11,574,944 permanent selection certificates have been collected.
Northeast Region: 11,289,293 registered voters, 10,402,734 permanent selection certificates have been collected.
Southeast Region: 10057130 registered voters, 9071,939 permanent selection certificates have been collected.
The above data shows that of the 84,004,084 voters who voted to vote, only 74,199,092 can vote after collecting their personal data. There are still 9,804,992 people who have not yet received their permanent selection certificate. APC ‘s Buhari comes from the northwest, while PDP ‘s Atiku comes from the northeast. Both candidates will receive a large number of votes in their constituency, but Buhari will still be at the top of the list, largely because Buhari has avid followers in the North. Most of northern voters blindly support Buhari , they think Buhari ended PDP16 -year reign of violence.
Another advantage of the Buhari government is that his party APC controls the populous states of Lagos and Kano. Of the 36 states in the Commonwealth , APC occupies the current government of 23 states, while the PDP only holds the current government of 13 states. APC is also the current government in most northern states and six western states. Atiku is likely to beat Buhari in the North Central and Southeast regions . At present, Atiku is very popular in the southwest and may win a lot of votes, but due to the display, Buhari will get more votes.
The agents of the two candidates will use money to attract voters. People think that Buhari ‘s anti-corruption stance will stop his team from tempting voters and let them judge independently. As before, the party’s hardcore members will say some lies, saying that the money is not from the president, but from the fanatical supporters of the Buhari government. There will be several “I love you over God” during the election. People will voluntarily conduct election fraud, threaten the supporters of rival parties, create chaos, and even kill people to ensure that their favorite candidate wins.
Proponents of APC and PDP boast that their candidates will win overwhelmingly, which is just nonsense. Both candidates have major flaws that cannot be ignored. It is widely believed that Atiku is corrupt, while Buhari is generally regarded as a serious nepotism and incompetence during his tenure. These unfavorable factors limit their chances of winning with an overwhelming advantage. Such a victory is usually won by a candidate with fewer defects.
Buhari’s shortcomings will affect, but will not hinder his victory. The three main determinants of the Nigerian election victory are the votership, the fairness of the election referee (INEC), and the effectiveness of security agencies, especially security. Buhari clearly has the support of the Independent Electoral Commission and security agencies. As a popular candidate, he will receive a lot of votes, but may need to be promoted. His cronies will not hesitate to do anything legal or illegal, and let him keep his power at a critical moment.
Like Dele Momodu such celebrities as well as Williams and Associates such well-known institutions, as well as economists have predicted Buhari will lose the election, but we did not test into account some of the crucial things –Buhari Government take concrete actions His government will retain its existing powers at all costs. The Buhari government threatened voters and conducted electoral fraud during Osong’s administration and re-election; secretly met with the head of the Independent Electoral Commission; Chief Justice Walter Onnoghen was politically dismissed; the army illegally displayed force in the states The abnormal political transfer of the police chief and other senior officials. These phenomena show that an incumbent government obsessed with power cannot implement absolute fairness and democracy in an underdeveloped country and then wait for it to be replaced.
Nigerians worry, INEC part of the behavior and security agencies could lead to a repeat of the tragedy of the Venezuelan elections, or will Aoding Jia – Ken Yeta ( Odinga-Kenyetta ) model on Nigeria. Except that God touched Aso Rock and handed over power to the opposition, otherwise it would not look like the ruling conspiracy group is willing to do. Unless, Atiku may be overwhelmingly strong enough, or in order to overthrow the incumbent ruling party is almost impossible. Williams and his colleagues in “The Economist” in prophecy, APC candidate Mahamadou • Bukhari ( Muhammadu Boukhari ) will be declared in 2019 the winner of the Nigerian presidential election.